The Restoration Bargain · Episode 6 of 13 · 20 min
The Model Behind the Marking
In 1973 at a Forest Service lab in Moscow, Idaho, Albert Stage published the Prognosis Model, which became the Forest Vegetation Simulator and still writes prescriptions and generates carbon numbers for projects like those on the Colville. Told partly from the host's own time doing the fieldwork behind it, the episode asks what it means that a fifty-year-old growth model remains the arbiter of what gets cut and how much carbon is claimed.
Who's who
- Albert R. Stage+2 more episodesForest Service silviculturist who published the Prognosis Model in 1973
- Robert A. Monserud+1 more episodeForest Service researcher whose Douglas-fir growth work fed the models
- William R. WykoffCo-author of the 1982 Prognosis user's guide
- Nicholas L. CrookstonModeler who co-authored the guide and later Forest Vegetation Simulator reviews
- Elizabeth D. ReinhardtCo-author of the Fire and Fuels Extension
- Jeremy S. FriedCo-author of the 2023 validation study of the simulator
- Alan A. AgerForest Service modeler who wrote that crown fire is poorly understood
- Derek J. ChurchillWashington DNR scientist who wrote the ICO implementation guide
Where it happens
- Moscow, Idaho+6 more episodesSite of the Forestry Sciences Laboratory where Prognosis originated
- Colville National Forest, Washington+8 more episodesOne of ten national forests in the 1982 Inland Empire model
- California+30 more episodesRegion covered by the 2023 validation study
Timeline
- 1973Stage publishes Prognosis Model for Stand Development
- 1974Douglas-fir Tussock Moth Research and Development Program begins
- April 1982Prognosis user's guide published
- 2003Fire and Fuels Extension published
- 2023Validation study finds 27 percent average overprediction of live-tree carbon growth in California variants
Still debated
The 27 percent overprediction finding covers four California variants over ten years in undisturbed stands, so it should not be generalized to Washington. Whether the tussock moth work is why the simulator is modular is an inference rather than an established fact.
forest vegetation simulatorgrowth modelsprognosis modelforest carbonfire modelingforest service research
