California's 2011 forest protocol pays landowners up front for the difference between their trees and the regional average, a promise insured for a century by a shared reserve of withheld credits. Scientists found roughly 30 million credits over-credited, a finding the regulator rejects. Wildfires, including the 2021 Bootleg Fire, then consumed the reserve in under a decade. Tribal projects have raised about $1.5 billion, the strongest case in favor.
Who's who
- Grayson Badgley+2 more episodesCarbonPlan ecologist and lead author of the over-crediting and buffer-pool papers
- Barbara Haya+4 more episodesUC Berkeley researcher and co-author of the over-crediting study
- Danny Cullenward+3 more episodesClimate economist and co-author of the over-crediting study
- Shane CoffieldUC Irvine author of a 2022 remote-sensing additionality study
- Ben ElginBloomberg Green reporter on forest offsets
- Lisa SongProPublica reporter on forest offsets
- Dave ClegernCalifornia Air Resources Board spokesman who rejected claims of gaming
Where it happens
- Bly, OregonNear the Klamath East project burned by the 2021 Bootleg Fire
- Blue Creek, California+1 more episode47,097 acres reacquired by the Yurok Tribe in 2025
- Warm Springs Reservation, OregonBurned in the 2020 Lionshead Fire
- Colville Reservation, Washington+2 more episodesLarge tribal project affected by wildfire reversals
- Klamath River, California+4 more episodesHomeland of the Yurok Tribe's pioneering forest project
Timeline
- October 20, 2011CARB adopts the Compliance Offset Protocol for U.S. Forest Projects.
- August 20, 2020The Lionshead Fire burns the Warm Springs Reservation and its offset project.
- July 6, 2021The Bootleg Fire ignites and burns about 100,000 acres of Klamath East.
- October 27, 2021CARB issues a rebuttal of the over-crediting study.
- August 2022A buffer-pool paper shows wildfire losses consuming a century of reserve within a decade.
- September 19, 2025California extends its program to 2045 and mandates a protocol update by 2029.
Still debated
The 29.4 percent over-crediting estimate is disputed by CARB, which says legal and financial constraints and a minimum-baseline backstop change the answer. Whether non-additional credits mean no climate benefit is argued, and the buffer's true balance lags the fires by years.
