Fire Returns to My Backyard · Episode 9 of 10 · 22 min
The Carbon Ledger
Climate policy assumed forests store carbon, but in bad fire years many Western forests now release more than they absorb. The episode covers drought and beetle die-offs, the dispute over whether California's forests flipped from sink to source, and wildfire's draw on the offset program's insurance pool. Method choices change the sign of the ledger; the direction of travel stays the same.
Who's who
- Patrick GonzalezUC Berkeley climate scientist; 2015 study found California wildlands lost carbon
- Grayson Badgley+2 more episodesCarbonPlan scientist; lead author on offset buffer-pool analysis
- Danny Cullenward+3 more episodesCarbonPlan analyst of California forest carbon accounting
- Zachary RobbinsModeler of beetle-killed Sierra ponderosa carbon
- Pawlok DassUC Davis scientist on grassland carbon reliability
- Benjamin HoultonUC Davis scientist on grassland carbon reliability
Where it happens
- Sierra Nevada, California+6 more episodesEpicenter of the 2012-2016 drought and beetle die-off
- Klamath region, OregonBootleg Fire burned through a registered offset project in 2021
- Santa Lucia Mountains, California+2 more episodesThe series' backyard, with the Timber Fire burning in 2026
- Colorado+7 more episodes2025 inventory found its forests a net carbon source
Timeline
- 2012-2016California's hottest recorded drought lets bark beetles overwhelm Sierra pines.
- July 2021The Bootleg Fire burns about 413,000 acres, including an offset project.
- March 2022CarbonPlan reports forests shifting from a sink in 2001-2010 to a net source in 2011-2020.
- August 2022Wildfire is found to have consumed nearly a fifth of the offset buffer pool.
- January 2025Colorado's forest carbon inventory concludes its forests emit more than they capture.
Still debated
Whether California's forests have truly flipped from carbon sink to source depends on method, boundaries, and baseline, and analysts dispute it. Officials and critics also disagree on whether the offset buffer pool can be recapitalized or the program's fire-risk pricing is broken.
Connected episodes in other series
Common PracticeThe Price of a Tonne · Episode 7Also features Danny Cullenward, Grayson Badgley
The BargainThe Restoration Bargain · Episode 12Also features Danny Cullenward, Grayson Badgley
Why Modern Wildfires Aren't Natural Anymore: Fuel, Air, HeatThe Fire This Time · Episode 2
The Beetle Summer: How Warming Unleashed the Bark BeetlesThe State of the Trees · Episode 4