The Fire This Time · Episode 2 of 8 · 20 min
Why Modern Wildfires Aren't Natural Anymore: Fuel, Air, Heat
Every fire needs fuel, air and heat, and a century of human choices now rests on all three. Suppression, drought and record bark-beetle die-offs loaded the fuel; a warming Pacific and a building very-strong El Niño add energy to the atmosphere; and humans start roughly 84 percent of U.S. wildfires. The episode keeps weather and climate distinct and avoids pinning any single fire on one cause.
Who's who
- Jennifer BalchScientist whose 2017 study quantified human-started U.S. wildfires
Where it happens
- Spokane, Washington+3 more episodesSite of the Old Trails Fire, the episode's illustration
- Colorado+7 more episodesHigh-elevation forests hit by spruce beetle
Timeline
- 1905-2000A century of suppression builds a fire deficit in Western forests
- 2000-2013Beetles affect about 46 million acres in the western U.S.
- 2009Mountain pine beetle activity peaks, then drops
- July 2026NOAA reports Niño-3.4 at +1.2°C with an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño
- August 2026Old Trails Fire burns under a first-ever warning
Still debated
El Niño's effect on Pacific Northwest summer fire is noisy and weak, so it is treated as loaded dice rather than a cause. Debate continues over how much of the West's fire problem is suppression and mismanagement versus warming; both contribute.
← PreviousThe Night a Wildfire Jumped the River Into SpokaneNext →How America Made Indigenous Fire a Crime, and Its Return
