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The State of the Trees · Episode 2 of 13 · 21 min

Thirst: How Megadrought Breaks and Moves Forests

Water is the master variable in a forest's life. The 2000 to 2021 Southwest megadrought was the driest 22-year stretch in at least 1,200 years, with about 42 percent of it traceable to human-caused warming. The episode explains hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, how heat strips a conifer's resin defense against beetles, and California's 2012 to 2016 hot drought, which killed roughly 129 million trees.

Where it happens

Timeline

  1. 2000Modern Southwest megadrought begins
  2. 2012-2016California hot drought and beetle outbreaks kill about 129 million trees
  3. 2017Studies map eastern forests drifting west and north and clarify drought-death physiology
  4. 2020Study finds 2000-2018 the second-driest 19-year period in 1,200 years
  5. 20222000-2021 declared the driest 22-year period in at least 1,200 years

Still debated

Natural variability still drives most of the megadrought. The human share, near 42 percent for 2000-2021, is a modeled attribution that depends on the period and reference climate used.

droughtmegadroughttreeshydraulic failurecaliforniaclimate
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