The Restoration Bargain · Episode 10 of 13 · 22 min
The Long Building
The promise at the end of the restoration chain is that the small log becomes a laminated beam, the beam a building, and the carbon stays put for a century. The physics is sound, but the carbon accounting is more modest than almost anyone quotes, with a substitution benefit that is real, small, and shrinking. The episode follows Vaagen Timbers from its 2017 founding to its 2025 sale, which the founder blamed on the market.
Who's who
- Russ Vaagen+2 more episodesFounder of Vaagen Timbers who announced its sale in November 2025
- Duane Vaagen+4 more episodesVaagen Brothers Lumber CEO and author of the small-log bet
- Philippe LeturcqAuthor of a 2020 paper arguing wood substitution benefits are minimal
- Jani NiemiLead author of a 2025 study estimating a smaller substitution factor
Where it happens
- Colville, Washington+3 more episodesSite of the Vaagen Timbers plant built in 2019
- Midway, British Columbia+1 more episodeVillage of about 650 where a non-tenured sawmill shut in 2023
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin+1 more episodeHome of the Ascent mass timber tower, built with Austrian timber
Timeline
- 2010Meta-analysis reports an average substitution factor of 2.1 tonnes of carbon avoided per tonne
- 2017Russ Vaagen founds Vaagen Timbers
- 2019Mass timber plant constructed in Colville
- January 5, 2023Midway sawmill shut indefinitely
- 2025Study estimates a substitution factor of 0.2 to 0.5
- November 2025Vaagen Timbers sold to Vaagen Brothers Lumber
Still debated
Substitution factors span a very wide range, and critics like Leturcq argue the benefit is near zero or negative while newer work still finds a small positive mean. Reported plant capacity conflicts between 30 and 50 million board feet, and no source shows inland restoration wood is viable at scale.
