Who Tore Up the Tracks? · Episode 21 of 24 · 15 min
What Actually Exists: Autonomy in 2026
In July 2026 the most shared robotaxi safety number said Waymo was one and a half times more dangerous than a New York taxi driver. Its authors withdrew it, and the corrected version said eighty-seven percent safer. The episode sources every autonomy claim to something other than a press release, comparing Waymo and Tesla and weighing safety, remote operators, empty miles, and lane capacity.
Who's who
- Eric TeohLead author of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's independent Waymo evaluation
- David HarkeyPresident of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
- Edward MarkeySenator whose office investigated remote operators at seven companies
Where it happens
- Austin, Texas+2 more episodesTesla robotaxi launch; only city where Waymo did worse
- San Francisco, California+12 more episodesDecember 2025 blackout stalled Waymo; fire department incident reports
- San Antonio, Texas+1 more episodeA Waymo was swept into Salado Creek in April 2026
Timeline
- June 2025Tesla launches robotaxi service in Austin with human monitors
- February 2026Markey report: all seven companies refuse to disclose intervention rates
- March 2026California regulator states Tesla is not operating an autonomous vehicle service
- July 23, 2026Independent evaluation finds 68 percent fewer crashes, and 4 percent worse in Austin
- August 2026Hunter College robotaxi safety study retracted and reversed by its authors
- September 2026Tesla deploys the Cybercab in Austin; federal regulators open an audit
Still debated
Most Waymo figures are self-reported, and the independent evaluation is a preprint finding a smaller safety gain than the company claims. Claims that Tesla crashes at four times the human rate rest on a journalist's mileage extrapolation, and many Tesla crashes were not its fault.