The 1966 Coleman Report was read as proof that schools barely matter, yet fifty years later economists put a number on one teacher: replacing a bottom-5-percent teacher is worth about $250,000 in lifetime earnings to a classroom. The episode follows the value-added revolution, No Child Left Behind, Race to the Top, and merit pay, then the retreat. The synthesis is uncomfortable: teacher effects are large, but tools to identify them remain crude.
Researchers dispute whether value-added scores are biased by student sorting. Whether D.C.'s IMPACT generalizes, and whether the 2020s retreat from evaluation reform is wisdom or fatigue, also remain open.