The Fire This Time · Episode 8 of 8 · 18 min
Will Wildfire Change the Minds of Climate Skeptics?
The places that burn hardest are often the most skeptical that the climate is changing, so the finale returns to the Old Trails Fire and asks whether fire at the door changes minds. The social-science evidence is mixed: effects are often small, short-lived or filtered through partisanship. The episode steelmans the skeptic, since the fuel deficit is real, and lands on shared ground: defensible space, home hardening, good fire and neighbors helping neighbors.
Who's who
- Chad HazlettPolitical scientist who studied wildfire exposure and voting
- Matto MildenbergerPolitical scientist, co-author of the 2020 wildfire-voting study
- Dan KahanResearcher of identity-protective reasoning on climate
Where it happens
- Indian Trail, Spokane, WashingtonNeighborhood hit by the Old Trails Fire
- Five Mile Prairie, Spokane, WashingtonWildland-urban interface neighborhood in the fire's path
- Monterey County, California+7 more episodesWhere the host spent the day cutting defensible space
Timeline
- 1910Big Burn hardens the doctrine of total fire suppression
- August 1, 2026Old Trails Fire jumps the Spokane River under a first-ever warning
- 2020Hazlett and Mildenberger publish wildfire and voting study
Still debated
Whether disaster experience changes climate belief is unsettled. One study found pro-environment voting rose near fires in Democratic-leaning areas but nearly zero in Republican-leaning ones, and other work finds small or short-lived effects.