In the Interior West, drought, beetles and megafire now compound into a new arithmetic, and increasingly the conifers do not come back. Ponderosa fails to regenerate after high-severity fire, lodgepole's fire-triggered cones are defeated by short-interval reburns, and the region has flipped from carbon sink to source. Quaking aspen floods into burns where conifers fail, even as famous stands like Pando collapse.
Aspen is both expanding and collapsing: it gains ground in burns where conifers fail, yet iconic and dry-edge stands are dying. The forest that grows back may not be the forest that burned.