The Long Argument: Capital vs. Labor · Episode 11 of 12 · 16 min
The Machine Question: Automation, AI, and Who Captures the Gains
Every automation wave was supposed to abolish work and never quite did. In 1960 Harry Bridges' longshoremen sold their consent to the shipping container for a share of its gains, the template for today's AI question. Early evidence on AI and work is ambiguous, but labor's income share has sagged and union membership stands near one in ten while about seven in ten approve.
Who's who
- Harry BridgesLeader of the ILWU who negotiated the 1960 Mechanization and Modernization Agreement
- Malcom McLean+1 more episodeTrucker whose ship Ideal X launched container shipping in 1956
- Lord Byron+1 more episodePoet who opposed making frame-breaking a capital crime
- Erik BrynjolfssonStanford economist co-author of a study of AI's effects on young workers
- Shawn FainUAW president who led the 2023 stand-up strike
- Chris Smalls+1 more episodeAmazon Labor Union founder who won the 2022 JFK8 election
- Jaz BrisackOrganizer of the first Starbucks union win in Buffalo
- Gwynne WilcoxNLRB member fired in January 2025
Where it happens
- Staten Island, New York+4 more episodesSite of the 2022 Amazon union election win at JFK8
- Buffalo, New YorkSite of the first Starbucks union vote in December 2021
Timeline
- April 26, 1956Ideal X sails from Newark to Houston, beginning the container age
- October 18, 1960ILWU and employers sign the Mechanization and Modernization Agreement
- December 9, 2021Buffalo Starbucks votes to unionize
- April 1, 2022Amazon Labor Union wins the first U.S. union election at Amazon
- November 30, 2022ChatGPT launches
- May 2-November 9, 2023Hollywood strikes win the first AI-clause union contracts
Still debated
Whether AI is hurting entry-level workers is unresolved, and the causes of the falling labor share are disputed. The 1960 longshore deal is judged as victory or managed surrender, and whether Hollywood's AI clauses can be copied elsewhere is untested.
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