Best Supporting Actress · Episode 10 of 10 · 20 min
The Law of Large Numbers — The Daughters Answer
Forty-three percent of women under thirty now claim no religion, closing the centuries-old piety gap from the women's side. The finale lays out the exodus data and the decision science of Gottman and Condorcet, then a model of equal votes, reasoned discussion and no tiebreaker, with the law of large numbers rendering a verdict.
Who's who
- Melissa DeckmanPolitical scientist and CEO of PRRI
- Daniel CoxSurvey Center on American Life researcher who documented the reversal
- Ryan BurgePolitical scientist and co-author of The Great Dechurching
- John GottmanMarriage researcher known for accepting-influence findings
- Marquis de CondorcetAuthor of the 1785 jury theorem
- Scott E. PageUniversity of Michigan scholar of the diversity-prediction theorem
- Justin McCarthyGallup researcher presenting the strongest counter-current
Timeline
- 2013PRRI baseline: 29% of women 18-29 unaffiliated, with women still more religious than men
- April 2024Survey Center finds 54% of Gen Z adults who left childhood faith are women
- February 2025Pew finds the gender gap has effectively vanished among the youngest adults
- April 2026PRRI census: 43% of women under 30 unaffiliated, with religious identity at parity
- June 2026Truth and Unity Amendment passes its first vote; the second is due in 2027
Still debated
Surveys show correlation and self-report, not why women left, and conservative gender politics is a leading but not sole cause. Whether young men are returning to religion is open: Gallup's salience numbers say yes while PRRI, Pew and GSS behavioral data show no male return. Condorcet's theorem is applied by analogy, not proof.